This year’s fishing season only confirms again that no two fishing seasons are the same.

Prices for glass eels have reached record levels largely driven by the very low catches of A. japonica. May be only three or four tonnes caught in China compared to 10/12 tonnes last year and virtually no imports from Japan and Taiwan as stocks are absorbed for local production. There is a deficit of at least 30 tonnes of AJ in China. It is interesting to note that in these times of shortage A. bicola from Indonesia is proving to be a popular substitute for A. anguilla.

Prices for A. japonica have reached 11.5 rmb per piece. A record level for the last ten years. At a count of 5500 pieces; A. japonica per kilo is now more expensive than gold. It is difficult to see which commodity glass eels or gold will be the best investment to buy, with gold falling by 10 dollars an ounce the other day perhaps we should consider changing our stocks from glass eels to gold.

It is hardly surprising that the current price levels of A. japonica , A. anguilla looks to be good value.  A  gradual realisation of the shortage of supply in Korea will put additional demands on stocks of European glass eels.

The cold weather on the last tide in January had a very significant impact on production and price. The tide at the start of February had more production but not sufficient to depress prices. I would estimate that between 55 and 60 tonnes of glass eels AA have now been shipped to China from Europe. The high prices will reduce demand in China but there is probably still a requirement for another 30 tonnes of glass eels AA.  The ex-farm price for eel AA has now increased to 80rmb per kilo. It is a self fulfilling prophesy as rising prices of glass eels encourage producers to hold stocks of eels which in turn stimulate ex-farm prices which in turn drives prices of glass eels to record levels. There are signs that prices have now  gone beyond a level that are affordable in China. Under normal circumstances I would have expected a significant price correction but with cold weather forecast for the first week of March and no significant catches for another 14 days this may be more difficult to achieve.  Though the season started well this year and production appeared to be ahead of last year, I suspect in the final analysis the total catch is likely to be less than the  last season.

China